In its Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme, the European Commission will explore the necessity, scope and cost-effectiveness of further action to achieve the long-term environmental policy objectives for air quality of the European Union.

A central step in this analysis is the assessment of the likely future baseline development of air quality as it can be expected to evolve from the envisaged evolution of anthropogenic activities taking into account the impacts of the presently decided legislation on emission controls. This report presents the results of such a baseline assessment.


Introduction
2 Methodology
- 2.1 The RAINS model
- 2.2 Scenario analysis and optimisation
- 2.3 Preparation and review of the RAINS databases
- 2.3.1 Bilateral consultations with the CAFE stakeholders
- 2.3.2 Improvements made for the final CAFE baseline scenarios
3 Energy projections
- 3.1 The baseline projection without further climate measures
- 3.2 The energy projection with climate measures
4 Emission projections
- 4.1 Sulphur dioxide (SO2)
- 4.1.1 Base year emissions
- 4.1.2 Future development
- 4.2 Nitrogen oxides (NOx)
- 4.2.1 Base year emissions
- 4.2.2 Future development
- 4.3 Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC)
- 4.3.1 Base year emissions
- 4.3.2 Future development
- 4.4 Ammonia (NH3)
- 4.4.1 Base year emissions
- 4.4.2 Future development
- 4.5 Fine particulate matter
- 4.5.1 Base year emissions
- 4.5.2 Future development
5 Air quality and impacts
- 5.1 PM2.5
- 5.2 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5
- 5.3 Ozone
- 5.3.1 Health impacts
- 5.3.2 Vegetation impacts
- 5.4 Acid deposition
- 5.4.1 Forest ecosystems
- 5.4.2 Semi-natural ecosystems
- 5.4.3 Freshwater bodies
- 5.4.4 Eutrophication
6 Conclusions